Or, The Assassination of Darcy Hordichuk by the Coward Trevor Presiloski

Alright, this is sort of an extension from my postscript on Wednesday, where I talked about the problems that are going on in the Canucks bottom six. Kyle Wellwood has been catching a lot of flak from people as of late as his offensive production so far this year has ranged from miniscule to dreadful. Just as Wellwood’s waistband has been shrinking, so too have his numbers on the scoresheet. Some fans have called for his being waived or bought out, as we simply must have him off the roster post-haste. Others have been content to let him stew up in the pressbox, letting him have a couch potato’s seat for his couch potato efforts.

But are ALL of these criticisms fully deserved? Is Wellwood truly as bad as everyone is making him out to be, or are people getting caught on the lack of offensive numbers and roasting him on a spit as a result? I don’t think so, as even without Wellwood’s offensive contributions, he actually improves the team and gives them a better shot at winning when he is in the lineup. So, here comes the analysis!

Right off the bat, I want to say that this isn’t meant to be a discussion about offensive production or lack thereof. There’s no way to get around the fact that Wellwood has not had great offensive stats this season and no amount of lipstick will be able to pretty up that particular pig. This is going to be examining the effect Wellwood’s presence has on the team in other ways.

The first thing I’d like to point out is that Wellwood eats up a lot of icetime in comparison to his other bottom six companions. This is important, as having players who can play gives our top lines some rest, rather than players who can’t (eg, Hordichuk’s 2:22 of icetime against Anaheim.) In particular, I looked at Rick Rypien (who has centered the third line when Wellwood is out), Ryan Johnson (our fourth line center) and Darcy Hordichuk (who tends to get into the lineup when Wellwood is out.) Wellwood’s average icetime is 13:43, 5 minutes more than Rypien’s average of 8:05, 2 minutes and change more than Johnson (11:07) and double Hordichuk’s average TOI (6:40.)

For comparison, Ryan Kesler and Henrik Sedin average just over 19 minutes a game. They’re top players for the Canucks, so they should be getting lots of icetime. Wellwood’s icetime is middle of the pack, sandwiched between his usual linemates, Bernier and Hansen. Rypien and Hordichuk are at the very bottom of icetime amongst Canuck forwards. Also, when Wellwood is out of the lineup, Henrik and Kesler’s icetime shoot up to an average 1:39 increase for Hank and 1:14 for Kesler. While this is not a significant increase, the number of games Wellwood has missed is minimal and the stats are skewed as a result. Looking at it game by game, there are 5 games (out of 7) where Kesler or Hank logged more than 2 minutes than their average and in some cases were logging as much as 4 minutes more than their average. That sort of icetime will add up over time and indicates that Alain Vigneault doesn’t have a lot of confidence in Rypien to be a third line center, as he leans heavily on Kesler and Henrik when Wellwood isn’t centering the line.

Looking at their time on the ice, things get a little uglier. Despite having more icetime than the other players listed, Wellwood has only been on the ice for 6 goals against, second best amongst the forwards I’m comparing. Hordichuk and Rypien have been on the ice for 7 goals against, a rather significant stat given the limited amount of icetime they see. Based on projections, Hordichuk would be letting in twice as many goals in the same amount of icetime as Wellwood. Rypien doesn’t fare much better, yet he is given third line center duties, which is an increased role over being a winger on the fourth line. Yikes.

There’s also the fact that Rypien can’t seem to perform an essential duty as a centerman:  the ability to win a faceoff. Rypien’s average is 44.4%, although that stat is slightly inflated by several nights where he only took 1 faceoff after someone was tossed from the circle. In his last three games where he served as center for the third line Rypien went 25%, 28.6% and 66.7%. Faceoff specialist Ryan Johnson is 50.5% in the circle over the season. Kyle Wellwood? 51.1%. It should also be noted that Johnson is wildly inconsistent in the dot, having a face off percentage of 48.5% last season and in 30 games this season has gone 11 games below 40% and 18 games below 55%, which was his 3 year average prior to coming to Vancouver.

To again refer back to how AV relies on Kesler/Henrik more when Wellwood is out of the lineup, they take way more faceoffs when Wellwood is out of the lineup. Presumably, this is to protect Rypien. Kesler and Henrik average 20 faceoffs a game with Wellwood out and 17 faceoffs when Wellwood suits up. Again, this may not seem like a significant number, but when you consider that Rypien isn’t taking many faceoffs at all and he almost certainly isn’t taking any KEY faceoffs (defensive zone, offensive zone, late in the period/game, etc) and that Kesler/Henrik see way more icetime in general when Wellwood is out, you up the chances of those players getting stuck in a bad situation like being hemmed in their own zone, tired due to playing big minutes and unable to change.

Now, you can argue the same thing about Wellwood, but the fact that he doesn’t tend to get scored upon when he’s on the ice AND that he’s capable of winning faceoffs reduces the chance of this situation happening. Wellwood being defensively sound is also supported by the fact that he has an equal number of giveaways and takeaways, whereas Rypien and Hordichuk cough up the puck far more than they ‘pick the pockets.’ Throw in the fact that he’s good at faceoffs, rarely takes penalties and can log a respectable chunk of icetime and I can’t see why Wellwood is being scratched in favor of Hordichuk, who has been a disaster defensively. On an embarrassing sidenote, Wellwood has also blocked more shots than Hordichuk has this season.

So in summary? Wellwood gives our top centers time to rest, is effective in the faceoff circle, doesn’t get scored upon when he’s on the ice, doesn’t expose Rypien’s weaknesses and keeps Darcy Hordichuk out of the lineup. While he may not be the longterm solution for the Canucks third line center, he is certainly the best current option. If the offense ever comes, he’ll certainly be looking a LOT better than he is now. Given that he won’t score up in the pressbox, he should stay in the lineup until a demonstratably better player comes along to replace him.