I’ve been on a bit of a blogging hiatus as of late. Sorry folks. That said, wow, talk about a tough loss to take on Sunday. Canada getting beaten by the Americans was something that most folks north of the border wouldn’t have predicted, but that’s goaltending for you: Ryan Miller was absolutely stunning, shutting down Team Canada with aplomb while Marty Brodeur was looking more like Marty Turco, with several weird decisions he made that translated into goals for the Yanks. I still think he ‘earned’ the start against America (compare his play against the Swiss to Luongo’s against Norway. Brodeur WAS tested far more than Luongo was and #30 looked a lot better as a result), but there’s no use crying over spilled milk now, is there? Luongo’s starting and Team Canada has their work cut out for them.

But can things be as ultimately dire as the many pundits, journalists, writers, experts, barroom denizens and armchair GMs would lead you to believe? True, the extra game could be a backbreaker and the German squad that Canada is facing are no slouches themselves, despite not having won a game so far this tournament. And yes, Canada does face Russia if they do manage to beat Germany afterwards, a less than desirable matchup if you’re looking at it strictly from a level of competition standpoint. After that, the heavy favorite by many on their last stop before a potential gold medal round is Sweden.

Germany, Russia and Sweden. On paper, that looks tough. I think by now, though, Canadians should realize that ‘on paper’ doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot.

I’m going to skip writing about Germany. Not because I’m dismissing them, but because everything you can possibly want to know about Germany has been covered by other more reputable places than myself. Simply put, they are going to be a good character test for the Canadians. They can’t look past them and expect an easy win. Germany plays a suffocating game but don’t have many offensive weapons. They SHOULD be readily handled by Team Canada. If not, well it renders the rest of this blog post moot. Assuming they do beat the Krauts, though…

Russia is the next confirmed opponent for Canada. Many folks are panicking over facing Russia, but I think that they’re the perfect opponents for Canada. 1972 is a long time ago, sure, but there is still a rich history between these two hockey nations in World Cup and World Junior play. Canada will ‘get up’ against the Russians and will play their best against a squad that boasts the likes of Ilya Kovalchuk, Evgeni Malkin and Alexander Ovechkin, to name a few. Yet it’s that offense that hasn’t exactly been delivering: there was the disappointing shootout loss to Slovakia and a 4-2 win against the Czechs, of which one goal was an empty netter. Factoring in the 8 goals scored against Latvia and Russia has scored 13 goals total thus far in this tournament. Only ONE of those goals has come from the powerplay. Also, with all the criticism Canada bench boss Mike Babcock has faced with his decisions so far, the Russian coach, Vyacheslav Bykov, has made some baffling decisions as well. The most notable being his decision to send Ovechkin out three times in the shootout, ignoring far more successful shootout wizards like Pavel Datsyuk or potential ‘unknown’ Alexander Radulov. Make no mistake about it: Russia is a great team, but they aren’t without their fair share of problems.

Again, ASSUMING that Canada wins and faces Russia and ASSUMING they manage to beat the Ivans, that leads them to the semifinals. Again, most people are picking Sweden as the odds on favorite to advance to the semis. I’m not necessarily sure I agree. While they’ve been getting outstanding goaltending from Henrik Lundqvist (two shutouts so far), I wouldn’t put it past the Slovaks to challenge Tre Kronor for a potential upset. Slovakia has shown that they can hang with the ‘big boys’ of this tourney, as evidenced with their shootout win over Russia. They’ve also been getting some terrific goaltending from Jaroslav Halak and have Zdeno Chara patrolling the blueline. While I don’t want to count out Norway (who Slovakia has to beat before facing Sweden) I’d say it’s a fairly good chance that the it’ll be Slovakia/Sweden in the quarterfinals.

Now, I talked about Slovakia. But what about Sweden? Well, I don’t think they are as good as their record indicates. For one, the Swedes are saddled with several underachieving forwards (Modin, Weinhandl and, most significantly Forsberg) and are also having the injury bug hit them (Pahlsson missed the last game against Finland, while Hornqvist left the game with a potential concussion) so I’d argue that they aren’t operating at 100%. Slovakia has been playing very well and with the goaltending from Halak, could upset the Swedes.

Could they carry that play into a semifinal matchup against Canada? Possible, although you have to wonder how long they could continue to play the role of spoiler. I do think that Canada matches up quite well with the Slovaks, as if they’ve made it that far, they’ll have been getting some stellar goaltending from Roberto Luongo.

If Canada makes it to the semis and it’s Sweden they face? I think that Sweden isn’t as scary as many folks are making them out to be, for the reasons mentioned above. Weinhandl is an anchor dragging down the Sedin line and Forsberg isn’t looking like his usual ’scary-good’ self. Canada should be able to contain the Swedes, which means it’s ’simply’ a matter of solving King Henry. Canada has struggled against hot goalies before, though I think that the bloom will be coming off the Swedish rose sooner rather than later.

So, there you have it. The Team Canada does have a difficult road ahead of them if they want to win gold, but by my estimation, it’s not insurmountable.